The Euroclear episode was not a technical dispute about frozen Russian assets. It was a raw confrontation over power inside the European Union: who decides, who carries the risk, and whether Europe still functions as a union of states—or is sliding toward informal hierarchy.
At the centre of the failed push to mobilise €210bn in frozen Russian sovereign assets stood Friedrich Merz, newly installed and eager to demonstrate that Germany was “back” as Europe’s undisputed leader. His approach was assertive, geopolitical, and impatient with procedural friction. Berlin proposed; Europe, it was assumed, would follow.
That assumption collapsed in Brussels.
Germany’s Strategic Blind Spot
Merz acted as if leadership were automatic—derived from size, money, and military ambition. In doing so, he made a critical misjudgment: he underestimated Belgium.
Because the bulk of Russia’s frozen assets sit in Brussels via Euroclear, Belgium would have carried the legal and financial blast radius of any premature or legally dubious seizure. Yet Berlin treated that exposure as collateral damage. Belgium was expected to comply.
Instead, Bart De Wever said no.
That refusal did more than block a financing mechanism. It punctured the assumption that large states can externalise risk onto smaller ones. In one move, Belgium forced the EU back into its foundational logic: consent, not coercion.
The metaphor of the genie being put back into the bottle is not exaggerated. Germany’s history makes unilateral leadership—especially when paired with rapid militarisation—deeply sensitive across Europe. Merz’s ambition to unlock close to €1tn in defence and infrastructure spending may be domestically defensible, but continentally it triggered alarms. Leadership asserted without coalition discipline quickly turns into dominance.
Belgium stopped that drift.
A Democratic Correction, Not a Weakening
This was not Europe becoming weaker. It was Europe becoming more democratic.
For years, the EU has functioned under an unspoken rule: big states lead, small states adapt. The Euroclear standoff disrupted that logic. It reminded Brussels that legal exposure, fiscal liability, and political accountability cannot be imposed by size alone.
Walking over smaller member states just became harder. That is not paralysis—it is constitutional correction.
Germany’s own economic fragility adds an uncomfortable historical echo. A century ago, economic stress fed political overreach. Today’s Germany is not Weimar Germany—but the reminder is there: when ambition races ahead of legitimacy, resistance follows.
Macron’s Silence Was Strategic
The most revealing absence during the confrontation was Emmanuel Macron.
Publicly, Paris did not oppose Berlin’s plan. Privately, Macron’s team questioned its legality and warned that France—deeply indebted and politically constrained—could not credibly underwrite the financial guarantees that might be required if the assets were reclaimed.
According to reporting by the Financial Times, once Italy and other states aligned with Belgium, Macron moved decisively. The plan was quietly buried.
A senior EU diplomat was blunt: Macron betrayed Merz—and knew it. But betrayal implies choice. Macron’s weakness left him little room. He aligned with Giorgia Meloni, not out of ideological closeness, but out of necessity.
Yet there was also opportunity in Merz’s failure.
Reclaiming France’s Position at the Endgame
Merz’s initiative threatened to sideline France as Europe’s primary geopolitical interlocutor—particularly on Russia. Weakening that bid served Paris.
Shortly after the Euroclear collapse, Macron floated the idea that he could again speak with Vladimir Putin. This was no coincidence. Macron’s earlier channel collapsed when he made the cardinal error of televising a call with Putin—a diplomatic humiliation that destroyed trust.
Now, with Germany checked and the United States advancing its own strategic timetable, Macron is attempting a late repositioning: not through money or force, but through diplomacy. The objective is transparent—arrive at the end of the conflict visible, indispensable, and in front of Berlin.
What Europe Learned
The summit produced a fallback solution: a €90bn EU loan to Ukraine backed by the EU budget. It was less ambitious than Berlin’s original plan, but legally safer and politically shared.
More importantly, it revealed a new European dynamic:
- Germany is initiative-driven, but increasingly unilateral.
- France is geopolitically ambitious, but fiscally constrained.
- Smaller states are no longer willing to absorb disproportionate risk.
The old Franco-German engine no longer sets direction by default. Leadership now requires coalition discipline, not just momentum.
Belgium’s stand did not humiliate Germany. It reminded Europe of its own rules.
A small state refused to be overruled—and Europe adjusted.
That is not failure.
That is democracy reasserting itself at the very moment it mattered most.
I was calmly eating my Belgian fries—perhaps one of Europe’s last undisputed contributions to world civilization—while watching the Flemish channel VTM. The sun was shining, the sky was clear, and that of course meant it was time for a national ritual: discussing climate change on television.
Because nothing pairs better with a warm, dry day than a panel of concerned experts explaining why everything is actually getting worse.
The news anchor, with the appropriate dose of mild existential concern, asked the question of the day: Why is Europe warming faster than other continents? A fair question. You would expect a complex answer about ocean currents, atmospheric dynamics, or perhaps decades of industrial legacy.
Instead, the explanation took a turn that nearly cost me my appetite.
According to the expert, Europe’s enthusiastic green policies may have… unintended side effects. Fewer emissions mean fewer particles in the air—particles that used to reflect sunlight and thus formed a kind of atmospheric “shield.” In other words: by cleaning the air, we may also be removing a protective layer against the sun.
At that moment, my fries became secondary. I was witnessing a philosophical paradox unfolding live on television: Europe, in its moral quest to save the planet, may be making itself more vulnerable to exactly what it is trying to combat.
You would almost expect a Nobel Prize for irony.
And so we naturally arrive at the thought experiment of the day. If fewer emissions reduce that protective layer, then the often-criticized “Drill Baby Drill” philosophy might deserve reconsideration—not as environmental damage, but as… climate management.
Absurd? Certainly. But no more absurd than pretending that complex systems respond linearly to idealistic policies.
After all, Nobel Prizes have been awarded for raising awareness about global warming. By that logic, one might almost expect that someone like Donald Trump would at least receive a nomination for proposing counterbalances—however controversial. When one side of the debate is treated as untouchable doctrine, the other side quickly begins to look like heresy… until reality asserts itself.
Because here lies the uncomfortable truth: nature does not follow ideology.
In life, and apparently also in the environment, everything revolves around balance. Push too far—whether toward unchecked industrialization or toward uncompromising green orthodoxy—and the system reacts. Not with applause, but with correction.
When policy becomes religion, nuance is the first casualty. And nature, unlike voters, does not negotiate. It restores equilibrium.
Perhaps that is the real lesson, somewhere between a portion of fries and a television debate: environmental policy is not about purity. Not about absolutism. Not about moral superiority.
It is about balance.
And balance, by definition, requires more than one force.
Which may well be the most uncomfortable conclusion of all.
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